Production Up 41 Percent According to October USDA Report
December 20, 2002
Production Up 41 Percent
The estimate of 2002 U.S. dry edible bean production has increased since the initial August crop forecast. Output of all classes is currently estimated at 27.6 million cwtup 41 percent from the short crop of a year earlier. National yield was estimated to be 16.32 cwtup 4 percent from a year earlier but 1 percent below the ERS trend (1960-2001) forecast. Output will likely rise for most classes with the exception of garbanzo, blackeye, and Great Northern. Estimated production by class will be released by USDA on December 10.
Prices Decline As Supply Increases
With the October crop estimate reinforcing Augusts production forecast, dry bean prices at all levels of the marketing chain continued to decline as the new harvest replenished pipelines, warehouses, and elevators. The 2002/03 season opened with the preliminary industry aggregate grower price ($17.80/cwt) estimated to be 2 percent below a year earlier. Although prices have dropped for most classes, the greatest downward price pressure has been on black, navy, and pinto beans, with output for these classes expected to rise substantially. A few classes could see higher prices in 2002/03. Drought-reduced yields in Texas have strengthened prices for blackeyes while a smaller Great Northern crop in Nebraska has allowed prices to remain 15 to 20 percent above year-earlier levels. A smaller garbanzo/chickpea crop in the U.S. and weather-reduced/damaged output in Canada will likely combine with stronger exports to help strengthen prices, which have been sliding lower for several years as growth in supply has outpaced demand.