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Market News
August 12, 2004

For 2004-2005, total Canadian pulse and special crops seeded area increased by 13%, as higher seeded areas for dry peas, lentils, dry beans, canary seed and buckwheat more than offset lower areas for chick peas, mustard seed and sunflower seed.

Seeding was later than normal due to wet weather in
Ontario, Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan
.

Crop development is, in general, about two weeks behind normal due to seeding delays and cool weather.

The delay in crop development increases the risk of frost damage in the fall.

Although, soil moisture reserves improved during May and June, parts of western
Saskatchewan and Alberta
continue to have below normal reserves.

Overall, yields are forecast to be near trend due to the improved moisture conditions. It has been assumed that precipitation and temperatures will be normal for the growing and harvest periods, and that abandonment and average quality will be normal.

For 2004-05, total pulse and special crops production is forecast to increase by 23%, from 2003-04, to 4.53 million tonnes (Mt). Total supply is expected to increase by only 15% to 5.04 Mt, because of lower carry-in stocks. Although exports and domestic use are forecast to increase due to the higher supply and strong demand, carry-out stocks are also expected to increase.

Average prices, over all grades and markets, are forecast to increase from 2003-04 for dry beans, chick peas and sunflower seed, decrease for dry peas, lentils, mustard seed and canary seed, and be the same for buckwheat.

However, due to low world carry-in stocks, prices are expected to be very sensitive to any production problems.

The main factors to watch in
Canada are precipitation and temperatures during the growing and harvest periods, and crop development. Other factors to watch are exchange rates, and growing conditions in the major producing countries, especially the U.S., Australia, India, France and Turkey
.

Production forecast to fall
Production is expected to decrease for all classes, including white pea, pinto, black, red kidney, cranberry, Great Northern, small red and pink. Exports are forecast to decrease, due to lower supply, and carry-out stocks are expected to decrease to a low level. U.S. production and supply are also expected to decrease due to a forecast 2% decrease in harvested area and lower carry-in stocks. Total U.S. and Canadian supply of all major classes of dry beans is forecast to fall. The average price, over all classes and grades, is forecast to rise due to lower supply.

-- Source:  Statistics Canada, July 13, 2004 

Seeding was later due to wet weather.

The delay in crop development increases the risk of frost damage in the fall.


 

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Northarvest Bean Growers Association | 50072 East Lake Seven Road | Frazee, MN 56544
Ph: 218-334-6351 | Fax: 218-334-6360 | Email: nhbean@loretel.net