Pinto, Navy Prices Reflecting Supplies
March 30, 2007
These graphics, courtesy George Flaskerud, extension economist at North Dakota State University, show historical U.S. navy and pinto price and production trends; note the supply/demand response in price to production shortfalls in 2001 and 2004, with its unusually cool growing season.
Certainly, the supply/demand situation for pintos supports bullish prices, although at this point, still below the supply-challenged lows in production of 01 and 04. Pinto production was down 24% last year, but up 23% from 04. Flaskerud says planted acres will have to increase 2-3% in 07 to maintain minimum carryover stocks, given average yields and USDA projected use including reduced exports.
In mid-February, prices for pintos at the farm level in North Dakota were $22-23. USDA projected in mid-December an average N.D. grower price of $22.25 in 2006/07, and $25.50 in 2007/08.
Navy bean production in 2006 was up 6.5% double the production of 2004 and the navy price outlook isnt as bullish going into the spring as it is for pintos. The grower price for navies in N.D. was about $19-20 in mid-February. Planted acres will have to decrease at least 15% for navy prices to improve much in 07, given average yields and USDA projected use. Of course, weather problems threatening supply would also impact prices for both pintos and navies.
Flaskerud says that storage of pinto beans especially continues to look profitable, due to tighter stocks and intense competition for acres in 07. NDSU Crop marketing and Risk Management online: www.ag.ndsu.nodak.edu/aginfo/cropmkt/cropmkt.htm